As the original and largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin was the catalyst for introducing decentralized digital currencies to the world in 2009. With a fixed supply of 21 million coins designed to be released over many decades gradually, its finite and diminishing availability raises questions about how much Bitcoin is left until mining ends. This thorough article explores Bitcoin’s emission schedule, analyzes how much is left to be mined, and discusses supply considerations in the coming century.
How Was Bitcoin’s Total Supply Determined?
Bitcoin’s creator Satoshi Nakamoto programmed the blockchain protocol with a set rule – no more than 21 million BTC can ever exist. This scarce supply allows Bitcoin to function potentially as “digital gold” with long-term value acquisition properties. The supply releases in halvings every 4 years, where around every 210,000 blocks mined, the mining reward is cut in half. This slow emission curve continues until roughly 2140 when the final Bitcoin is projected to enter circulation. The finite and predictable issuance instills confidence in how much Bitcoin is left as a sound long-term store of value.
When Will the Last Bitcoin Be Mined?
Given mining difficulty exponentially rising to match the network hash rate over the years, the last Bitcoin block reward transaction – block 6,929,999 – is estimated to occur sometime between the years 2140-2144. By then, the block subsidy will have been reduced to the smallest denominated unit in the Bitcoin system – 0.00000001 BTC. However, miners will always be incentivized even after the final Bitcoin is created through transaction fees included in blocks. Under current usage, these fees may sustain blockchain security in perpetuity despite a vanishing block subsidy. So while mining issuance ends circa 2140, Bitcoin as a functioning network can theoretically continue indefinitely.
Since Genesis Block’s creation in 2009 granting 50 BTC to the very first miner, over 18.7 million BTC of the full monetary base had entered active circulation as of May 2022. Each successive halving occurs roughly every 4 years reducing mining rewards by 50% – from 50 BTC per block originally, to now 6.25 BTC as of the May 2020 halving. Around 2.3 million coins remain until the final coin is mined – a tiny fraction of the total supply. However, factors like lost coins and long-term holders see around 3 million BTC effectively removed from the medium-term market supply.
How Many Bitcoins Are Lost Forever?
Conservatively, industry estimates suggest around 2-4 million Bitcoins from the earliest years may have been forgotten in lost or inaccessible wallets over time. Common causes include forgotten passwords, corrupted private keys, deceased users without successors, and other storage media failures. One study found as many as 20-25% of Bitcoins have likely been removed permanently through loss and mismanagement alone. Additional long-term holdings see effective supply shrinkage further. With people asking how much Bitcoin is left and its scarcity increasing by the day, “lost coins” paradoxically reinforce Bitcoin’s value proposition securing those remaining in verified wallets.
How Much Bitcoin Is Left By 2140?
Despite over 18.7 million BTC already mined representing 89% of the total supply in circulation today, factors like loss, long-term holdings, and lost private keys mean actual spendable circulating supply currently remains far lower. Some estimates put accessible liquid Bitcoin closer to only 14 million while Bitcoin United estimates real circulating supply dipping under 10 million by 2031 as more coins exit markets. This dynamic shrinking liquid supply acts as the true scarce commodity underlying Bitcoin’s longevity as “digital gold” far beyond the headline 21 million figure. The last Bitcoin mined over 100 years from now will truly signal maximum theoretical scarcity.
How Does Lost Supply Alter the Bitcoin Price Outlook?
As circulating supply continues contracting due to loss and long-term holding, this dynamic should exert notable upward pressure on Bitcoin prices according to basic supply/demand theory. With a reducing supply chase over time by an expanding user base and infrastructure, the competitive premium for verifiably extant Bitcoins increases. Demand increases alongside hashrate security protecting a smaller pool of coins in verified wallets. Estimates show a 4% supply loss from loss and holding alone could push prices over $1 million if other demand factors hold equal. The feedback loop of scarcity reinforces Bitcoin’s value proposition and makes high future price targets increasingly plausible by historians far in the future.
What Does the Mining Reward Halving Mean for Supply?
Every 4 years, the mining reward is scheduled to halve per the protocol’s built-in supply schedule. This transforms the inflation schedule over time as an exponentially smaller quantity of new coins enters the ecosystem each day. The 2016 and 2020 halvings reduced the daily bitcoin minting from 3,600 to 1,800 and now 900 respectively. Later halvings will introduce just 450, 225, and 112.5 BTC daily until 2032. The diminishing subsidization shapes Bitcoin’s inflation curve to trend smoothly toward zero issuance by 2140, giving it qualities resembling commodity money like gold over the long run.
Conclusion | How Much Bitcoin Is Left?
With more than 89% of the Bitcoin supply already mined, it quickly is evolving from an inflationary to a scarce asset, with mining scheduled to end around 2140 and an exponential production decline timeline in place. An estimated 2-4 million Bitcoins are believed irrecoverably lost already too, making the practical liquid float far scarcer than raw totals suggest. As halvings cut emissions sharply further until ultimate issuance cessation is realized, scarcity factors will assert vigorous long-term upward pressure on relative valuations. Making high future price projections eminently plausible for historic savers or heirs holding until the last slivers are exchanged well after 21 million Bitcoins are technically mined. Overall, the protocol’s tight emission design combined with an expanding user base points to an extremely limited long-term inventory that becomes progressively harder to obtain.